Who Walks Away a Three-belt Unified Champion: Mayer or Baumgardner?
On October 15, you will have a women’s junior lightweight showdown between unified IBF/WBO champ Mikaela Mayer (17-0, 5 KOs) and WBC champion Alycia “The Bomb” Baumgardner (12-1, 7 KOs) at the O2 Arena in London, England. The fight takes place on ESPN Plus at 2:30 PM EST.
This is a genuine grudge match, and the bad blood has been on full display during the pre-fight festivities. Mayer predicts giving Baumgardner a boxing lesson and taking her into deep waters. Baumgardner predicts she will dog-walk and knock her rival out. After years of back-and-forth venom toward each other, they will settle their differences in the ring.
KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID
Mayer is an adaptable fighter, capable of doing everything in the ring. In her win over Ewa Brodnicka to win the WBO title, Mayer kept things on the outside and boxed. But, in her unification contest against then-IBF champ Maiva Hamadouche, Mayer was forced into phonebooth warfare but showed her toughness and willingness to stand and trade in pulling out a hard-fought win.
It would behoove Mayer not to get into a similar firefight with Baumgardner. The WBC champ can hurt and take you out with one punch. For the unified champ, her best strategy would be to use her height and reach advantages. The more she fights from a distance, the greater chance she gives herself of victory.
TURN THIS INTO A SHOOT-OUT
Baumgardner came from relative obscurity when she starched Terri Harper to capture the WBC belt in November 2021. In that fight, she used her heavy hands to fluster Harper early before finishing matters by literally knocking her out on her feet in the fourth.
Her first title defense against Edith Soledad Matthysse in April 2022 went the distance and was far less explosive. However, she displayed not too shabby in the skills department. Baumgardner showed she was more than a puncher as she cruised to an easy decision win.
Against Mayer, it would be best for Baumgardner to make this a war. Powerful and physically imposing for the division, the 28-year-old must find a way to get inside the length of the unified champ. Most pundits feel that if this turns into a chess match, the advantage goes to Mayer. Therefore, Baumgardner must find a way to get home with her vaunted power early and as often as possible.
PREDICTION
What you have here is the technical prowess of Mayer versus the athleticism and explosiveness of Baumgardner. The jab is an important punch in this fight and Mayer has the better jab of the two. She’s also more versatile and experienced. If the unified champ uses the jab to keep Baumgardner at bay, her odds of victory increase. If she is lured into a war, Baumgardner’s power will become a real factor.
Baumgardner will be dangerous throughout and have her moments. However, a focused and disciplined Mayer will do enough to win by decision.
By: Michael Wilson Jr.
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